Introduction to Cycles

Cycles play a crucial role in financial markets, influencing the behaviour of prices and determining market trends. Throughout this platform, we will dive into the fundamentals of market cycles, exploring why it is important to measure cycles, the definitions and terminology used in cycle analysis, and clear and defined rules for identifying cycle bottoms. We will also cover important concepts such as backtesting, trendlines, swings, and timing bands, all of which are crucial for understanding and predicting market cycles.

What are cycles?

Cycles refer to patterns of repetition in data or events over a given period of time. They are present in various areas of life, including natural phenomena like the changing seasons and lunar cycles, as well as in human-made systems such as economic cycles. Understanding cycles provides valuable insight into the behaviour of systems, enabling informed predictions about future events and trends.

Cycle Measurements

Cycle measurements are the foundation of cycle analysis, providing a way to measure the length of time between two points in any time frame. In this page, we'll focus on Daily, Weekly, and Monthly time frames. Let's get to know the key definitions and terminology used to measure each important price swing.

Daily Cycle Low (DCL) - The lowest point in the daily cycle, serving as the daily anchor for price. When the price reaches its lowest point, it becomes the Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL).

Half Cycle High (HCH) - The first pivot after the price moves from the DCL. This provides an insight into the strength of the upcoming cycle. Short HCHs typically indicate a bearish cycle, while long HCHs indicate a bullish cycle. Some cycles skip HCH, indicating extreme price movements.

Half Cycle Low (HCL) - The second low following the DCL, serving as a pivot for the cycle trendline. HCL provides a good idea of future price movement and is typically more consistent than HCH. It can be above or below the DCL, indicating if it's a bearish or bullish cycle.

Daily Cycle High (DCH) - The second high following the HCH, which can be the highest high or the lowest high of an individual cycle. When DCH marks a failed daily cycle, it's labeled as “DCH”.

Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) - The lowest low within the weekly cycle, marking the best time to buy and hold securities. It's the fractal of the DCL on the weekly time frame.

Intermediate Cycle High (ICH) - The highest point within the weekly cycle, marking the best time to sell investments. The timing of the ICH can indicate price movements, being either early or late.

Yearly Cycle Low (YCL) The lowest point in the multi-year cycle and the absolute best time to buy.

With these definitions in mind, let's dive into some charts and see how cycle measurements can be applied to both bullish and bearish scenarios. Get ready to put your new cycle knowledge to the test!

Cycle Chart Setup, Tips & Tricks

Brief video below outlining charts set up in TradingView and tips and tricks to make cycle counting a walk in a park.